Preparing For An Ice Storm In Oklahoma

Tony

Staff member
It happens just about every year. Oklahoma and the surrounding states gets hit with a pretty large ice storm. This year is no different and the storm is going to move in later tonight into tomorrow morning.

Yesterday the high temp was a record breaking 79ºF and today I woke up to temps in the 20's. Talk about a shock lol. Then starting late tonight and into tomorrow as well as Saturday and Sunday it's nothing but freezing rain and sleet. Hopefully the weather man got it wrong... But I doubt they did.

Thankfully I have a generator that is full of fuel and I have electric as well as propane heaters ready to go. All we need to do now is stock up on water just in case the power goes out (I'm on a well, but even still, my well is hit or miss if it's going to work right now and don't have the money to replace it... Complete suckage).

So that is where I stand right now. I plan on doing a live stream here in a couple hours but not sure if I'm going to get to do it or not. I have it scheduled, but may have to cancel it. We will just have to see what happens when the time comes.
 

RandyDSok

Well-Known Member
We are currently awaiting a new model run ( it starts now at 6pm and will take a bit to compute )... so the following is from the previous run.



Here is the current national radar...


Current.jpg




Now for the current model run showing what this model ( the NAM this time ) was forecasting for now....


Model_predicted.jpg


What should be pretty obvious... is the model is showing much more pessimistic than what is actually being seen for now. I'm waiting for the new model updates which should be re-initialized with the latest data... hopefully it won't be as bad as they've been forecasting...

Current.jpg

Model_predicted.jpg
 

Tony

Staff member
I sure hope not. Snow I can handle, these damn freezing rain ice storms are the worst!!!
 

RandyDSok

Well-Known Member
I'll probably stay up past when the next model run is made... at midnight. I'm hoping the trend backs down when I compare the actual radar vs the two models that I'll check it against.

At least I've remembered to flip up my windshield wiper in case we get any freezing stuff... no matter how much or little that may be.
 

RandyDSok

Well-Known Member
Ok... I'm tired of waiting on the NAM model to finish... so I'm switching to the HRRR which isn't quite as accurate but the model runs don't take as long to complete ( the latest NAM isn't even 1/2 way done yet ). I'm also focusing on the south central USA since that is the subject here at this time.


The 2am ( a little later ) national radar with p-typing ( precip estimation ). Remember that this is radar and doesn't represent what is actually making it to the ground, it represents the cloud layer at the height of the radar beam itself. The p-typing is an estimate of what the precip could be using model information not actual ground info.


SC_Current.jpg


Ok... here is the latest HRRR model simulated radar ( with p-typing also ) for the same time...


SC_Model_predicted.jpg


As should be obvious... again the model has over estimated the potential for precip in this model run. This should be good news for at least the early morning portion of the forecasted storm. At this point, I'd be surprised if we get anywhere close to the amount of freezing precip they had forecasted in the morning if we get any at all ( I think we'll get a trace + but not much more by the time I go into work in Norman Ok )

SC_Current.jpg

SC_Model_predicted.jpg
 

wolfman76

Well-Known Member
we got hit with a ice storm also but our temps were more like 8 degrees here in the NW Indiana ice is still on the ground
 

Tony

Staff member
It's just now starting here. It's bad enough that we are going to do an internet call rather than have Matt drive down here in it.
 

Admiral

Well-Known Member
In comparison Brisbane yesterday was 34 Celsius or 93.2 Fahrenheit with over 80% humidity, went flying early in the morning and knocked off about 10:00am to hot & humid to stay there.

 

Tony

Staff member
I don't even want to hear it Keith lmao. It's cloudy, misting and just above freezing here. Can't do anything in this crap...
 
Top Bottom